Monday, November 29, 2010

Persian Problems

Interesting analysis from Stratfor on the impact of the most recent wikileaks release of diplomatic cables.  While much of the media coverage has been on Arab neighbours urging the US to bomb Iran, the most interesting story at this point seems to be the open discussions of the Iranian's ability to fortify their nuclear facilities against conventional air attack. This prospect would be well known by the US and its allies, but the fact that this is being openly discussed arguably places even more pressure on the US to act quickly or else miss their 'window'. In a world focused on the Korean Peninsula, or European CDS, perhaps a bombing of Iran is the black (or is that grey?) swan we should be thinking about?


1 comment:

  1. The whole US foreign strategy from 2011 onwards is in itself one big potential black swan...They simply do have the political or financial capital to keep going in Iraq and Afghan...let along take on Nth Korea and Iran...

    I think we will see some massive shock and awe approaches to dealing with these problems in coming years. The US will not lose 1000's of your young soldiers and spend trillions 'spreading democracy'.

    They will bomb as targeted as possible and just accept the human cost of this action as collateral damage.

    Quite frankly, I dont blame them